ENJOY CHOICE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS RESOURCES TO YOUR HEART’S CONTENT

A list of intelligence analysis resources will hopefully prove to be of as great value to visitors of our website as it is to students on our courses.

To be precise, this site is more about education in the application of declassified structured analytic techniques to foreign affairs analysis and threat assessment, not your hard-core intelligence analysis.

But the gap between these two subdomains is not so big. And all of the resources we offer are 100% relevant also for non-vetted SAT learners and practitioners .

Structured analytic techniques is a young tradecraft. Still, it has already generated a significant volume of unclassified research and reviews. This world of wisdom is now at your fingertips.

To find some of the pearls from the list below we went to staggering depths – the abyss beyond Google’s page 150. We believe it is quite rare that people systematically go on such a deep delve. (And it is even rarer that they return.)

FIND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS RESOURCES THAT YOU NEED – AND SHARE YOUR OWN CATCH WITH US

Our current catch represents just a tiny fraction of the unclassified resources existing, which are truly renewable. All signs suggest that they will continue growing at an ever increasing rate. In response, we will continue trawling the nether depths of search engines and bringing new things up.

We will love it when authors send us their recent work or new articles in PDF and be honoured to host them and make available to both students and scholars of the analytic tradecraft.

We’ll be equally grateful to our visitors for bringing us their own catch.

We very much rely on the analytic community’s joining us to help improve access to its resource base.

The Big Bang triggered some two decades ago by the works of trail-blazers has created a universe of knowledge that is spreading at an ever-increasing rate.

The jinni has escaped from the lamp.

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Intelligence Analysis Blog – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]An awesome site. It offers tons of useful stuff – some of it serious, some trivial – about both intelligence and analytic tradecraft. Provides a list of blogs too, some of which I found plain amazing.[/ultimate_modal]

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Adams, Barbara D.; Rehak, Lisa; Brown, Andrea; Hall, Courtney D.T., Human Decision-making Biases

Defence R&D Canada Technical Report, Toronto, CR 2010-097, October 2009

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Human Decision-making Biases – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]This report has six chapters. Chapter 1 provides a project background, scope, work items and deliverables. Chapter 2 discusses the method used to conduct the literature search, describes the review process and structure of the report and discusses some limitations of this review. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the most common human decision-making biases. These include a range of biases, including reliance on availability and representativeness heuristics, hindsight bias and anchoring and adjustment biases. Chapter 4 reviews models and approaches associated with the two dominant approaches to decision-making, including analytic or naturalistic perspectives. Chapter 5 reviews research and theory relevant to how human decision-making biases can be best mitigated. Chapter 6 concludes the report by exploring some potential future options for furthering this line of research in order to meet the current goals of the Scientific Authority.[/ultimate_modal]

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Analytic Standards, Intelligence Community Directive 203

Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Washington D.C., April 2015

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Intelligence Community Directive 203 – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]This document establishes the Analytic Standards for the US Intelligence Community that govern the production and evaluation of analytic products and articulates the responsibility of intelligence analysts to strive for excellence, integrity and rigor in their analytic thinking and work practices.[/ultimate_modal]

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Artner, Stephen; Girven, Richard S.; Bruce, James B., Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community

RAND Corporation, 2016

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]The Intelligence Community (IC) is strongly emphasizing the use of structured analytic techniques (SATs) to promote rigorous analysis, lessen the risk of intelligence failure, and make analysts’ reasoning more transparent to consumers. So far, however, the IC has made little effort to assess whether SATs in general or specific SATs are improving the quality of analysis. One primarily qualitative method of evaluating these techniques would be periodic in-depth reviews of IC production on a variety of topics to ascertain how frequently SATs are used, whether they advance the attainment of IC analytic quality standards, and which specific SATs are most effective. RAND’s preliminary SAT review of a limited sample of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and National Intelligence Council (NIC) publications finds that the minority of them employing SATs addressed a broader range of potential outcomes and implications than did other analyses, although the logic behind specific techniques was not always transparent.[/ultimate_modal]

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Brightman, Hank J., Nash in Najaf: Game Theory and Its Applicability to the Iraqi Conflict

pp. 35-41, Air&Space Power Journal, Maxwell Air Force Base, Fall 2007

This article hosted by courtesy of the Air and Space Journal.

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Nash in Najaf – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: this article examines how, through application of game theory to this model, US and coalition forces will ultimately suffer casualties at an increasing rate the longer they remain in Iraq. This will occur because both Domestic Insurgencies and Indigenous Security Forces will turn away from attacking each other towards a point of mathematical corruption. At this theoretical point, American and coalition troops will become the target of broad-based DI attacks, with intelligence frequently provided by ISFs.[/ultimate_modal]

Chang, Welton, Berdini, Elissabeth, Mandel, David R., Tetlock, Philip E., Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence (article)

Intelligence and National Security, November 2017

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Restructuring SAT in intelligence – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., overconfidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process.[/ultimate_modal]

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Derbentseva, Natalia; McLellan, Lianne; Mandel, David R., Issues in Intelligence Production

Defence R&D Canada Technical Report, Toronto, TR 2010-144, December 2010

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Issues in Intelligence Production – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Intelligence analysis provides important informational support to civilian and military decision makers. Recent intelligence failures of Canada’s allies have been attributed mostly to cognitive, social, and organizational deficits and biases of individual analysts and intelligence agencies. Such attributions call for a comprehensive examination of intelligence production from the socio-psychological perspective. The present report discusses findings from interviews conducted with Canadian managers of intelligence analysts. The interviewed managers identified a number of pertinent issues in the intelligence production process that may be explicated through the application of the behavioural sciences’ accumulated knowledge and methodology. The report identifies and discusses in light of the intelligence studies and behavioural sciences literature, and outlines a roadmap for the behavioural sciences research program in support of the intelligence function.[/ultimate_modal]

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Derbentseva, Natalia; Mandel, David R., A Concept Map Knowledge Model of Intelligence Analysis

Defence R&D Canada Technical Report, Toronto, TR 2011-077, May 2011

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Concept Map Knowledge Model of IA – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This Technical Report describes a Concept Map (CMap) Knowledge Model (KM) of intelligence analysis developed at DRDC Toronto. The CMap KM consists of a number of interlinked CMaps and over 100 additional resources (such as text documents, images, Internet links, etc.), organized into an interactive hyperlinked system, which serves as a resource depository and provides an easy access to relevant material. The CMap KM captures the research team’s conceptual understanding of various issues relevant to intelligence analysis and brings together a number of pertinent topics. The authors’ aspiration for this CMap KM is that it might serve as a springboard for further development of concepts essential to intelligence analysis and as a foundation for an intelligence analysis education program.[/ultimate_modal]

Fisher, Frank; Miller, Gerald J.; Sidney, Mara S. (editors), Handbook of Public Policy Analysis

CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2007

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Handbook of Public Policy Analysis – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This behemoth of a book – it has 670 pages – is divided into ten parts. Part I, “Historical Perspectives,” deals with the basic origins and evolution of the field of public policy analysis. The second part, “Policy Processes,” examines the stages of the policy-making process. Part III, titled “Policy Politics, Advocacy, and Expertise,” turns to the role of political advocacy and expertise in the policy process. The fourth part focuses on rationality in policy decision making and the role of policy networks and learning. Part V, “Deliberative Policy Analysis,” turns to the role of argumentation, rhetoric, and narratives in the policy-analytic process. Part VI explores the comparative, cultural, and ethical aspects of public policy. The seventh part takes up the primary quantitative-oriented analytical methods employed in policy research. Part VIII explores the qualitative sides of policy analysis. Part IX, “Policy Decisions Techniques,” examines various tools employed to help refi ne policy choices. The final section, “Country Perspectives,” traces the development of policy analysis in selected national contexts.[/ultimate_modal]

Friedman, Jeffrey A.; Zeckhauser, Richard, Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence

Harvard Kennedy School, Faculty Research Working Paper Series, John F. Kennedy School of Government or of Harvard University, RWP12-027, June 2012

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or infeasible. This article instead argues that the goal of estimative intelligence should be to assess uncertainty. By drawing on a body of nearly 400 declassified National Intelligence Estimates as well as prominent texts on analytic tradecraft, this article argues that current tradecraft methods attempt to eliminate uncertainty in ways that can impede the accuracy, clarity, and utility of estimative intelligence. By contrast, a focus on assessing uncertainty suggests solutions to these problems and provides a promising analytic framework for thinking about estimative intelligence in general.[/ultimate_modal]

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Gauthiere, Michelle, Validation Workshop of the DRDC Concept Map Knowledge Model: Issues in Intelligence Analysis

Defence R&D Canada Technical Report, Toronto, CR-2010-057, June 2010

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Issues in Intelligence Analysis – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: The Thinking, Risk, and Intelligence Group (TRIG), one of three groups of the Adversarial Intent Section at Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) Toronto, has as an objective “to support Canada’s defence and security community through applied behavioural science aimed at promoting human effectiveness in risk management and intelligence production”. Around 2009-2010 it implemented a Research Project entitled “Understanding and augmenting human capabilities for intelligence production”. A workshop conducted under the auspices of this project set out to explore and discuss the utility of concept map knowledge modelling within the Canadian intelligence analysis community.[/ultimate_modal]

Gookins, Amanda J., Role of Intelligence in Policy Making

SAIS Review, Volume 28, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2008, pp. 65-73 (Article), The John Hopkins University Press

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Role of Intelligence in Policy Making – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This article introduces a framework that clarifies the roles of each actor in the relationship between intelligence analysts and policy makers, and how the interactions of the two synthesize to produce actionable policy. There are many obstacles for both parties in reaching valid, fact-based conclusions from intelligence. Understanding these obstacles will allow for greater opportunities to avoid them and produce better, sounder intelligence analysis and policy creation.[/ultimate_modal]

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Heuer Jr., Richards J., Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques

Paper, March 2008

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This paper distinguishes structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis from three other broad categories of intelligence analysis methods and then presents a taxonomy of the structured techniques. The structured techniques are categorized by how they help analysts overcome one or more of the well-known human cognitive limitations or pitfalls that often inhibit effective analysis. It describes five categories of structured analytic techniques: decomposition and visualization; indicators, signposts, and scenarios; challenging mindsets; hypothesis generation and testing; and group process techniques.[/ultimate_modal]

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Kimmelman, Susan, Indications and Warning Methodology for Strategic Intelligence (thesis)

Calhoun – Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, December 2017

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Indications and Warning Methodology for Strategic Intelligence – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Today’s U.S. intelligence community lacks the human-centric focus needed to develop a forward-looking intelligence estimate. Using a comparative research model, this thesis explored how grey zone indicators used by the U.S. Army Special Operations Command translate into modern indicators for the intelligence community, and sought similar applications for the homeland security enterprise. The research found that, for homeland security, implementing a human-centric indications and warning methodology that focuses on the actor as the key security challenge can help provide advance warning for a planned attack or can indicate a bad actor who is inspiring others to take action.[/ultimate_modal]

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Lemieux, Vincent, Criminal Networks

Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Ottawa, March 2003

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Criminal Networks – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This report on criminal networks is divided into three parts dealing with the following elements: 1) Criminal organizations are both networks and businesses. This report, however, deals more with criminal networks than with businesses. 2) Criminal organizations, when viewed as networks, have characteristics common to other social networks, but also have specific characteristics that largely relate to the fact that these organizations are criminal businesses. 3) The self-protection measures undertaken by criminal networks, as well as the limiting of knowledge, make combatting the networks difficult. The fact remains, however, that strategic elements for this fight have been suggested by criminal network specialists.[/ultimate_modal]

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Mandel, David R., Barnes, Alan, Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence

Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, DRDC-RDDC-2014-P72, September 2014

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision-making. In spite of the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.[/ultimate_modal]

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Mandel, David R., How Good are Strategic Intelligence Forecasts?

Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, DRDC-RDDC-2014-P64, September 2014

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”How Good Are Strategic Forecasts – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: The question—How good?—is important for at least two reasons. First, intelligence is a costly enterprise, the US it runs in the tens of billions each year. Second, intelligence is a consequential enterprise, affecting not only national security (and hence, to some extent, personal security), but also national opportunity. Capitalizing on opportunities requires leaders and policy makers to have good foresight, and intelligence can support that. If it is good.[/ultimate_modal]

McDowell, Don, Strategic Analysis – A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers and Users

The Scarecrow Press, Inc., 2009

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Strategic Analysis – A Handbook – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This is a corner-stone book from one of the true trail-blazers in strategic analysis. It includes sections on General Concepts, Critical Observations, Issues for Clients and Managers, Processes and Techniques, Analyst’s Roles, Responsibilities and Functions. 270 pages of illuminating reading directed primarily at the law enforcement community but equally relevant to the public and private sectors.[/ultimate_modal]

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Moore, David T., Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis

Occasional Paper Number Fourteen, Centre for Strategic Intelligence Research, National Defense Intelligence College, March 2007

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Our times demand fresh, critical reasoning on the part of those tasked to assess and warn about threats as well as those tasked to act on those threats. Education in the bases and practices of intelligence foraging and sensemaking – often called intelligence collection and analysis – is a means by which this can be accomplished. Critical thinking – as it is here defined and developed – provides part of the solution as it encourages careful consideration of the available evidence, close examination of presuppositions and assumptions, review of the alternate implications of decisions, and finally, discussion of alternative solutions and possibilities. In short, it equips intelligence professionals with an essential tool for their work.[/ultimate_modal]

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OECD, Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2008.

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This Handbook aims to provide a guide to the construction and use of composite indicators, for policy-makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. While there are several types of composite indicators, this Handbook is concerned with those which compare and rank country performance in areas such as industrial competitiveness, sustainable development, globalization and innovation. The Handbook aims to contribute to a better understanding of the complexity of composite indicators and to an improvement in the techniques currently used to build them. In particular, it contains a set of technical guidelines that can help constructors of composite indicators to improve the quality of their outputs.[/ultimate_modal]

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OSCE, Guidebook on Intelligence-led Policing

Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Vienna, June 2017

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”OSCE Guidebook on ILP – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Intelligence-led policing (ILP) puts criminal intelligence analysis at the core of law enforcement. It also moves criminal analysis and decision-making closer together than other contemporary policing models, calling for new skills and competencies of law enforcement analysts and managers. This guidebook addresses ILP from four main standpoints. First, it defines ILP and the rationale for promoting the model as a contemporary law enforcement approach, applicable to the OSCE area as a whole. Second, it covers the important subjects of human rights and data protection when implementing ILP. Third, it addresses the analysis of data and information, resulting in strategic and operational intelligence products being used as basis for informed and evidence-based decision-making. Fourth and finally, the guidebook introduces practical recommendations of national, regional and local organizational structures as well as the minimum standards needed for criminal intelligence departments and decision-making mechanisms.[/ultimate_modal]

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Padilla, Pierre, Policy Learning through Strategic Intelligence (thesis)

University of Twente, Enschede, February 2016

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Policy Learning Through Strategic Intelligence – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This dissertation deals with the role of Strategic Intelligence in both cross-temporal and transnational policy learning. It aims to understand how Strategic Intelligence enables and/or fosters policy learning. The notion of policy learning refers to a specific type of policy change and policy transfer.[/ultimate_modal]

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Perry, Walter R., Gordon IV, John, Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies

RAND Corporation, 2008

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This monograph presents a broad range of analytic techniques that can be used to support the security portion of counterinsurgency operations. It combines research supporting two complementary studies: one focused on ways to improve U.S. counterinsurgency capabilities and a second aimed at developing operational analysis techniques to defeat improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The first study provides a framework for thinking about the nature of an insurgency and the latter then examines operational analysis techniques to answer the operational and tactical counterinsurgency questions that evolve at each stage in the insurgency.[/ultimate_modal]

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Pherson, Randolph R., Saunders, Karen, Using Structured Analytic Techniques to Assess the Interrelationship between Warlordism and International Diffusion

Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, 2012

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”SAT Warlordism International Diffusion – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: This paper focuses on the use of structured analytic techniques to better understand warlordism and international diffusion and illuminate the interplay between these two phenomena. Warlords and warlordism are significant influences in many present-day conflict areas. Although warlordism is assumed by many to be a strictly negative force, some scholars contend that warlords are often integral to the functioning of both political and economic systems and societies writ large, and as such serve an undeniable role in peacebuilding and development efforts. As the international community seeks to understand and build appropriate responses to the complex conflicts and political instability in North Africa, the horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, southeast Asia, and elsewhere, an understanding of the threats posed – as well as the opportunities presented – by warlordism remains critical.[/ultimate_modal]

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Pherson, Randolph R., Strategic Foresight – Nine Techniques for Business and Intelligence Analysis

Globalytica, 2015

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Strategic Foresight – Nine Techniques – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Analysts and decision makers can use nine different Strategic Foresight techniques to anticipate the outcomes of struggles in such places as Syria or the Ukraine and over a longer time frame to assess the impact of global climate change or trends in cyber warfare. The primary objective in using Foresight Analysis is to avoid surprise, but the techniques often prove just as valuable in mapping the future and identifying new opportunities for business or government.[/ultimate_modal]

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Pherson, Randolph R., The Tradecraft of Warning: Overcoming Cognitive Barriers

Pherson Associates, February 2009

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Tradecraft of Warning – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Warning analysts can reduce the chances of main-line analysts and policymakers being surprised by future events if they employ structured analytic techniques. This paper describes 12 tools—some recently developed—that warning analysts can employ to help them challenge assumptions, generate multiple hypotheses, discover unknown unknowns, and track alternative futures. Three techniques are particularly useful in helping analysts anticipate low probability events and avoid surprise: High Impact/Low Probability Analysis, What If? Analysis, and the Pre-Mortem Assessment. Use of these techniques will ensure greater rigor in the analysis and reduce the chances of surprise.[/ultimate_modal]

Ratcliff, Jerry H., Strang, Steven J., Taylor, Ralph B., Assessing the success factors of organized crime groups – Intelligence challenges for strategic thinking

pp. 206-227, Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management Vol. 37 No. 1, 2014

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Intelligence Challenges for Strategic Thinking – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Expert assessment of organized crime (OC) group capabilities is often the basis for national threat assessments; it is rare, however, for variations in collective expert opinions of OC success factors to be systematically evaluated. The purpose of this paper is to examine the differences in how 150 criminal intelligence experts from a variety of national and organizational backgrounds sort and organize perceived attributes for OC group success. The current research raises a number of questions regarding the confidence that should be placed in OC group assessments. The research has highlighted areas of professional dissonance that were not apparent from the RCMP Sleipnir research alone. Causes of the dissonance in assessments, and connections of these variations to both intelligence analysts’ experience, training, and organizational ethos; and to OC group capabilities, seem deserving of additional attention.[/ultimate_modal]

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Social Networks Analysis Theory and Applications

Without attribution

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”SNA Theory and Applications – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Social network analysis views social relationships in terms of network theory consisting of nodes and ties (also called edges, links, or connections). Nodes are the individual actors within the networks, and ties are the relationships between the actors. There can be many kinds of ties between the nodes. Research in a number of academic fields has shown that social networks operate on many levels, from families up to the level of nations, and play a critical role in determining the way problems are solved, organizations are run, and the degree to which individuals succeed in achieving their goals. Social network analysis has now moved from being a suggestive metaphor to an analytic approach to a paradigm, with its own theoretical statements, methods, social network analysis software, and researchers. Analysts typically either study whole networks (also known as complete networks), all of the ties containing specified relations in a defined population, or personal networks (also known as egocentric networks), the ties that specified people have, such as their “personal communities”.[/ultimate_modal]

Tetlock, Philip E., Expert Political Judgement

Princeton University Press, 2006

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Expert Political Judgement – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: The first report about the lessons learned from the good-judgement project. The resulting cognitive portrait of expert political judgment is not altogether flattering. This report offered initial insight into why so many political disagreement proved to be so intractable and its partisans so rarely admitted error even in the face of massive evidence that things did not work out as they once confidently declared. A succinctly written book that put the limelight on what Nassim Taleb later defined as “empty suits”.[/ultimate_modal]

Tetlock, Philip E., Theory-driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Possible Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?

American Journal of Political Science, April 1999

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Experts neutralize dissonant data and preserve confidence in their prior assessments by resorting to a complex battery of belief-system defences that, epistemologically defensible or not, make learning from history a slow process and defections from theoretical camps a reality.[/ultimate_modal]

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The Futures Toolkit

UK Government, London, November 2017

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”The Futures Toolkit – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: The Futures Toolkit is a key resource that policy professionals can use to embed long term strategic thinking in the policy and strategy process. The Toolkit is designed primarily as a resource for those who are new to futures thinking but should also prove useful to more experienced practitioners. It provides an introduction to futures thinking and examines some of the important design questions that policy makers need to consider when introducing it into the policy process. The tools are organised according to their primary purpose – gathering intelligence about the future, exploring the dynamics of change, describing what the future might be like and developing and testing policy and strategy – and each procedure is set out in detail. The annexes provide examples of the outputs that different tools generate.[/ultimate_modal]

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Williams, Phil, Transnational Criminal Networks

pp. 61-97, Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, RAND Corporation, 2001

[ultimate_modal icon_type=”selector” icon=”Defaults-book” modal_title=”Transnational Criminal Networks – Abstract:” modal_on=”text” modal_on_align=”left” read_text=”Read abstract …” overlay_bg_opacity=”80″ img_size=”80″ img_close_background_color=”#21b11e” txt_color=”#21b11e”]Abstract: Many old-style criminal hierarchies are reorganizing into sprawling transnational networks. This article analyses this trend, with an emphasis on developments unfolding in Russian criminal organizations. It draws on the academic literatures about social and business networks to deepen our understanding of this phenomenon.[/ultimate_modal]

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