Case studies in strategic threat analysis and futures work

Strategic threat analysis is heady stuff. But so is futures work. Or fat-tails analysis.

Threat assessments and predictive estimates easily rank among the most demanded analytic products, particularly in strategic intelligence or foreign affairs analysis.

On this page we will periodically publish Case Studies that demonstrate the use of different Structured Analytic Techniques for analysis of real-world issues.

Some of the case studies are our own, designed for use in our course.

Others are those handed in by our students as course Home Projects. They are published with authors’ permission as submitted and graded, without any editing on our part.

We find it truly impressive – and motivating – to see how students previously unfamiliar with SATs climb a very steep learning curve to produce work of such a high quality.

Either way, our case studies are intended to be both educating and captivating reading. Enjoy!

And by all means, leave your comments. Please be specific and succinct in your criticism (and praise). Show respect in order to be treated with respect.

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Case Study 7: Predicting armed insurgency threat against FORFOR troops – does reality fit the theory?

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A review of data on armed insurgency threat dynamics attempts to answer this question. If armed insurgency threat to foreign troops can be predicted,  deployment and exit strategy for conflict-stabilisation and peace-keeping forces may require rethinking. In an internal armed conflict, indigenous security forces and domestic insurgents will at some point collude to oust a…
red teaming Korean reunification-1

Case Study 5: Korean Reunification – Buy-out, Cyber-attack, or ..?

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RED TEAMING KOREAN REUNIFICATION: MULTIPLE-PERSPECTIVE UTILITY ANALYSIS FROM CHINESE ANGLE Red teaming Korean reunification can aim to identify multiple scenarios leading to a strategic change. Adding utility analysis on top can help to choose the one future among many that can accrue highest utility to the tasking authority. The technique of Multiple-Perspective Utility Analysis (MPUA)…

Case Study 1: Spot-on Election Forecasting Using Analytic Failure Simulation Technique

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Election forecasting is one core occupation of policy analysts all over the world. Analytic Failure Simulation is a structured analytic technique that can increase the accuracy of estimates. And as a consequence, raise analyst credibility. Election forecasting can also be great fun. I’ll show you how. Overview of the Analytic Failure Simulation Technique. Case study…
cyber threats ranking with Sleipnir model

Case Study 4: Cyber Threats Ranking Using SLEIPNIR Assessment Tool

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CYBER THREATS RANKING – A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE TRUSTED LONG MATRIX In this post I’ll show you how to produce an actionable Strategic Threat Assessment (STA) using the Sleipnir matrix. Moreover, I’ll show you how to do it using both the trusted Long Matrix 1.0 and the newer Long Matrix 2.0. And last of…
migrant smugglers plan Lampedusa invasion

Case Study 3: The invasion of Lampedusa

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OR HOW TO THWART MIGRANT SMUGGLERS IN 7 STRUCTURED STEPS What is claimed to have never happened before, has simply not happened yet. This Case Study addresses the strategic threat posed by migrant smugglers in Southern Mediterranean. It demostrates the use of a structured analytic technique called High Impact-Low Probability Analysis (HI-LPA). The purpose of…

Case Study 2: Afghan opium production is at a historic high. Gosh, what a surprise!

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Lanchester analytic techniques challenge Afghan opium production.  Afghan opium production has reached a historic high. Satisficing discoursive analytics failed to provide a warning about the unfolding of this scenario. This analytic fiasco calls for an application of a different set of analytic techniques. Lanchester analytic techniques belong to the subdomain of econometric methods. They are…

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